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“Saturday Night Special-Padres-Risk-vs-Reward”

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Is this the beginning of the end af all the losing, or the beginning of a move that puts the rebuilding drive on a skid?

The Padres ownership has never been afraid to let General Manager AJ Preller make his player moves.

They let him take on a ton of contracts three years ago, Matt Kemp, James Shields, Justin Upton, Melvin Upton in all those trades..

Heavy money deals that nearly sank the franchise into Mission Bay.

They bought into his idea to rid the team of some substandard production, and pay people to take this same contracts he had acquired, Kemp, Shields, Upton and more.

They let him go wild in the International and Draft venus, signing a combined total of 91-players, spending 101M dollars over a two summer span, to rebuild the farm system, paying all that tax money to get these kids..

And they agreed to a massive 8-year-144M contract, with 5-years of no trade clauses, and an opt out after the 5th yearn outbidding the Royals for their All Star first baseman Eric Hosmer.

They get production, they get a Gold Glove, they get a clubhouse leader who also speaks Spanish, they get a guy committed to the team and who has committed to the cities he has lived in.

In Kansas City they are grieving the loss of a cornerstone player and person. But he leaves to some criticism, that it was too much money, 21M a year for the first five years, for a guy who has had good seasons then off seasons.

Homer comes to San Diego and makes the everyday lineup and the hitters around him much better.

Put Hosmer in the middle of a lineup, next to Chase Headley, Will Myers, Manny Margot, the developing Hunter Renfroe, Carlos Asuaje, Freddy Galvis, and the Padres suddenly have a bunch of guys who have proven they can hit and help a team over a 162-game schedule.

The quotes from those complimenting him in Kansas City are numerous:
..Exemplary teammate-embraced his city.
..He was a big stage-big movement player.
..Every player should do what Hosmer did for his team-his city.
..Good player-good clubhouse guy-we have good culture.

But there have been negatives too:
..Check his WAR stats over his career
..Good season-bad season-Good season-bad season
..Ground ball hitting 1st baseman
..Every other year type of guy
..Most inexplicable move of offseason.
..Overpaid-grossly overpaid for inconsistent career.

Three years ago this week, so much excitement when the Padres opened their camp with those newcomers, who didn’t work out, didn’t have good attitudes, and left a mess behind.,

This is a bold move as Hosmer comes to the Padres camp from up the road in Surprise, Arizona.

The franchise has pushed its payroll to about 90M with this deal, and they are spent out. His arrival does not guarantee they’ll be more than a .500-team, because their pitching is so weak.

And understand, because they overspent so much with their International budget, they will be very limited, almost non existent for the next three years, bidding on whatever the next germination of Cubans and Dominicans become available, limited to what bonus money they can pay..

This team will be fun to watch at bat, fun to watch run the bases, and will work hard. That is the chemistry of what is on the roster.

But sometimes if you think deeply, you remember the wild amount of money the Angels gave Moe Vaughn, Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols, or the Red Sox investment in Carl Crawford. There is a fear factor to be considered. There is history of what happened with long term contract to players at their peak of their careers, who break down, or don’t produce after their arrival.

They better hope everyone of theses young arms they have paid for, pan out, get here soon, and get here healthy. Otherwise what they spent on Hosmer will go to waste, and they won’t have money left in the checking account to guy buy more players, if these kids don’t work out.

But for the first time in a long time, they convinced a marquee free agent to accept their offer, and come to San Diego. They couldn’t with Shohei Ohtani, Yasiel Puig, Masahario Tanaka and a whole bunch others.

On paper, these guys have had special seasons. But there has also been a streak of inconsistency, not just with Hosmer, but Headley and Renfroe. That’s 45M worth of this year’s payroll you hope has a hot season, not a down season.

This is either the beginning of the end of all the Padres losing for a decade, or this is the beginning of the skid if Hosmer can’t be a superstar, and the young talent doesn’t pan out.

Ownership has believed in AJ Preller. We’ll see next if Premolar’s beliefs pan out.

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“The Letter P….P-for Padres…Pitching…Pathetic”

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San Diego Padres pitching. It starts with questions marks, and ends with even more question marks.

Depending on whom you listen to, there is either false hope in all the statements from GM-AJ Preller, a barrel full of bullcrap from Manager Andy Green, or amazing belief in pitching coach Darren Balsly.

Yes there is great hope for ‘tomorrow’, with the array of young arms in the Padres minor league system, but the large majority of those hurlers have to prove they can do well at AA-San Antonio, or even at AAA-El Paso before you can buy into the sale pitch they will succeed at Petco Park.

And the promise of ‘tomorrow’ will come after ‘162-todays’, the 2018 schedule, and we cannot set aside what we saw in 2017..

The scoreboard does not lie at Petco Park.

On paper, the pitching staff the Friars have taken to their Cactus League camp, is horrible. Granted games are played on the field, but the stat sheets of the 10-starting pitchers they think can fill out the rotation, paints a picture of more-failure than success.

The Padres had the worst run differential of any team in major league baseball last year, and the starting rotation they are looking at bringing back went a combined (45-62) with an amazingly high (4.83-ERA) from guys in the rotation.

Gone from last year’s starting group is Joules Chacin who went (13-10) with a best (3.89-ERA). He parlayed that into a (2Y-16M) contract to go to Milwaukee.

The Detroit Tigers, in the beginning phase of a painful tear down, had a (5.36-ERA) worst in baseball. The woeful Cincinnati Reds, playing in that bandbox Great American Ballpark, trotted out a staff that had a (5.17-ERA). The once promising Mets, ripped by surgeries and injuries to all but one starter, staggered home with a (5.01-ERA). The Baltimore Orioles, dragged down by bad arm issues, finished with a (4.97-ERA).

Yes the Padres will send out the kiddie corps duo of Donelson Lamet, who jumped from AA to the majors, and was competitive with a (4.57-ERA), and logged lots of good innings around an occasional bad one.

Luis Perdomo has been force fed two years in a row, but had just 8-wins last year and a still high (4.67-ERA).

Clayton Richard, hired to be an innings eater, will give you all he can, but even he cannot hide from an (8-15) record and a (4.79), despite lots of starts and innings.

After that, it’s anybody’s guess, but everyone of the other starters throwing bullpens this week in Arizona, had bad numbers.

Bryan Mitchell came from the Yankees, where for four years he has been trying to land a slot in the New York rotation. His career ERA (4.94) in the majors. He had a (4.16) earned run average thru 8-seasons in the minors. The Padres hope he can become a trustworthy starter, but they have no baseline of info he can, at least yet.

Tyson Ross returns hoping to recapture the magic. He went (26-35) in San Diego and got to pitch in an All Star game before a blood clot and surgery derailed him. He is just (35-56) in his big league career, has pitched in just 13-gamesin two years, and last year, coming off the surgery, he had a (7.71-ERA).

Chris Young went (33-25) with the Padres in his first stint, but has had a history of health issues and bad luck. Neck injuries, shoulder capsule surgery, labrum surgery, an oblique injury, hit in the head with a linedrive. Once upon a time, you’d respect his (3.95) career ERA, but last year he rocketed up to a (7.50) mark.

Speaking to the past, there was a time people in Houston and Colorado thought, hoped, Jordan Lyles would be something special in the rotation. The Astros and Rockies got rid of him with a (28-48) lifetime record and a (5.43) ledger. Last year, he was at (7.75).

Three other potential starters are all coming off major surgeries. No one knows what they will be like if healthy. We do know there were few flashes of success when they were healthy.

Matt Strahm came from Kansas City in the Ryan Buchter-Trevor Cahill-Brandon Mauer transaction. He had 67-stirkouts in 56-innings out of the Royals bullpen, before he went down with knee surgery.. But he also took a (5.45-ERA) with him on the disabled list.

Colin Rea had elbow surgery, which negated his trade to the Miami Marlins. Promise yes, but not fully realized, with his (4.69-ERA)

Robbie Erlin had elbow surgery, and in spurts looks like he belongs, with a (9-12) career mark, but again a 4.54-ERA.

Yes the Padres have a deep bullpen, headed by the gem that is Brad Hand, but you fear overwork there. There is more quality there than there is in this group of ten rotation.

And not to be left out, reliever Carter Capps is coming off blood clot surgery, and Miguel Diaz had a forearm procedure very early last season.

In a division led by Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Madison Bumgarner (Giants), Zack Grienke (Arizona) and a Rockies team that just spent 100-M to sign three free agent relievers, the Padres don’t matchup at all.

So you can be excited by what might be in the pipeline, the top 5-arms in the farm system, but you have to be realistic that the Calvin Quantrill-Joey Luchessi-Eric Lauer era could be 12-to-18 months away.

You have to have a dose of reality in your clubhouse coffee, that the 10-names I just mentioned , come opening day, will have a collective (5.62-ERA) from last season.

That’s right (5.62) which is worse than the four worst pitching staffs we saw last summer.

AJ Preller’s optimism seems off base. Andy Green’s ideas all these pitchers have to seize the moment, seems far fetched. And unless Darren Balsley has easy access to Holy Water from Lourdes, I just don’t see any way this team’s arms, will be able to compliment the Padres bats.

I know better days are coming, but based on this starting rotation, I think you are signing up for another 90-loss season.

Maybe the only solution is to start a new marketing campaign. Buy a season ticket, get the chance to make a start in the Padres rotation. It cannot be any worse than what this team appears ready to run out there this year.

“P”…Padres-Pitching-Pathetic.

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“Sports Stories-Life’s Shocking Story”

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It would normally be a day to talk about all the storylines in sports, but everything has been overshadowed by what happened in Florida. Every time I wanted to start writing about the hot stories of the day, I was overwhelmed by the depths of the tragedy.

….Shohei Ohtani comes to the Angels camp.

At least 17-dead in the terrible shooting at that Florida high school. No rhyme, no reason, just another sordid tragedy at a different location in America.

..Lakes give up 139-points in a loss to New Orleans.

The shock of the shootings deepened when you hear stories that the gunman had written on Facebook multiple times about his private wish to shoot people, shoot police officers.

..Raiders release Sebastian Janikowski

In a social media society you wonder how people, who read things written by the shooter, could do nothing, not confront him, not go to police officials, not take action to try and prevent this.

..Team USA loses to Slovenia in hockey

Parkland, Florida is the dateline for this tragedy, but it’s like all the rest. Columbine… Charleston, South Carolina…..Orlando…….Las Vegas……Connecticut…..Virginia Tech….it’s everywhere.

..Tito Francona passes

Washington, DC, should be the next deadline….Congress needs to act, step across the aisle, and find away to deal with the 300M guns that are out there in America, legally and more so illegally.

..Tim Lincecum holds private workout for teams.

The rhetoric needs to end across America. We worry about ISIS, religious terrorists, North Korea, the Trump administration, natural disasters, diseases and more. But guns and murder, all these tragedies, are as bad as anything else our country is trying to live thru. It will never end till all sides come together to solve who can and cannot get access to guns.

..Guns + Mental Illness = Tragedy.

That story is more important than any of the sports stories out there at this hour. So sad what our country must deal with, again.

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“Padres-Good Move or Bad?”

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Baseball camps are opening everywhere in Arizona and Florida, the Padres included.

Also opening is the Unsigned Free Agent camp in Bradenton, Florida, for some of the 110-still unsigned free agents.

Some big bats and big name veteran pitchers are still unsigned including the one marquee name the Padres are still very interested in.

Eric Hosmer is the 28-year old power hitting first baseman and the emotional leader of the Kansas City Royals. He’s still unsigned, and surprisingly, only the small budget Padres and his Royals have made bids.

The going rate seems to be 7-years and 140M from KC, and something close to that from the Friars. But he has not accepted either deal.

Of course agent Scott Boras has the history of dragging negotiations for his clients on and on, trying to create bidding wars. This year, however everyone of his big guys, seeking big contracts, are still out there.

The Padres sales pitch is about more than just his stats, coming off a solid 2017, and more than just his great glove, but also about his clubhouse chemistry and leadership ability.

The big debate as I see it, with the Padres likely headed to a 60M payroll, does it make sense to give one third of your budget to one player?

Homer’s stats are solid. A lifetime (.284) hitter, with 68-homers in the last three years as he blossomed into stardom. Solid, as is a career defensive stat, a (.995) fielding percentage with just 49-errors in 7-seasons.

Last year Hosmer raked (.318) with 25-hojers 94-RBIs, 51-doubles and 66-walks.

There are some common sense questions that need to be asked about a deal like this.

If you go 7-years, what will you be getting production wise, the final 4-years of that deal, when Hosmer is 33-years going forward.?

Boras wanted 8-years, but no one is going in that direction.

Now as talks stalled comes a unique tidbit….give Hosmer an opt out clause after 3-years that might allow him to to re-enter free agency again, at age 32. That type of clause might lure him out of Kansas City, where a major rebuild is about to begin.

The Padres are halfway home in their rebuild project, with seven kids having arrived last year, and more likely to come this season. The Royals are a longer way off.

Maybe, the Padres should also be able to put an opt-out clause that could allow them to exit over the final couple of years if his stats tail off. Of course Boras would never buy into that deal.

Homer has lots of positives, and would surely make the Padres lineup more complete, surrounding him with Will Myers, Chase Headley, Manny Margot and Hunter Renfroe.

You always wonder if Hosmer can reproduce those stats in San Diego. He was surrounded by 38-home run hitter Mike Moustakas, big bat Lorenzo Cain, slugging catcher Sal Perez, and slap hitters Alex Gordon and Melky Cabrera.

You don’t really see that type of talent in the current San Diego lineup.

So the debate rages now. Give him one-third of your payroll?. Hope he is productive the next three to five years as all the young draft picks and internationals arrive?

Better days are going to San Diego, but one wonders if Hosmer fast forwards the success of the franchise, or just bides his time, till better pitching arrives. If he thought he had to play behind weak pitching last year in KC, wait till he investigates what is on the major league roster this year.

Decision time is coming. Overpay now hoping you can ride a Hosmer waves, or wait another year, till more free agents come available and you have a better roster around him?

Not my money, but I’d sign the check and expect the best.

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“Super Show-South Korea”

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It’s bitter cold outside, but the competition is red hot.

The only way to describe all the action at the Phoenix Snow Bowl in Pyeongchang.

We got a sneak preview of the fireworks on day one, when American Jamie Anderson, the sensation, survived brutal conditions to get her gold medal in snowboarding.

America got a wild run in the men’s luge when Chris Mazdzer decided he would go for the medal or crash, in getting the first ever US medal in the very strange sport.

The weekend brought us the gold run by 17-year old Red Girard, the snowboarder no one knew, nor expected to do much.

But Monday night brought brilliance, from one of the youngest, and the oldest, in the electric half-pipe competition.

The ‘X’ game era brought us Shaun White, and has delivered Chloe Kim, and what we saw was beyond brilliant.

White, the Carlsbad phenom, going for his 3rd gold medal. At age 31, coming off crashes and injuries, he did not disappoint with strong runs to move on to the finals.

Dazzling was the only way to describe Kim, who scored (93.75) in her first run, then in the final run, went a near perfect (98.25), all this at age 17.

And then White, who created a whole new set of moves in Vancouver and Sochi, came out airborne. When he started with a doubled corkscrew out of the gate , you knew he was making a statement.

The ‘Flying Tomato’ went with a triple flip, a double twist, and then the on the edge 1260-degree rotation.

When he was done, he was in first place with a (93.25) score, not the perfect 100 he had in the last Olympiad, but it was close.

It’s not in the American language, terms like 1080s….720s, 900’s. frontside-backsides…..corkscrews. switchbacks.

But Kim made us all aware of what she could do with a 4-spin move….a gigantic flip….and a triple spin in her final 1080-degree leap.

Then White took over, and dominated.

How impressive was it all? The NBC broadcast team used terms like ‘nailed it’….’killed it’…..’aced it’.

And the Mammoth Mountain superstar did it-claiming gold, in her first Olympics. And the kid from Carlsbad put himself in position to claim gold again.

These are not sports we pay much attention too, except every fourth winter.

The scenery for the winter games is breathtaking, and the moves by these superstars takes your breath away. Twists, turns, flips, leaping 20-feet into the air, tumbling, and landing.

Lots more events to follow the next week plus there in South Korea. What a way to star the Super Show in South Korea.

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