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“PADRES–AN OUTSIDER’S VIEW OF AJ PRELLER”
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Padres baseball…we live with it, cover it, have views of it from close up.

Sometimes it is good to look outside our circle to see what others are saying at this hour about the Padres off season.  The one that follows another disappointing playoff finish.  The one that takes a different view of the roster, the budget issues, even the ownership group and what happened this week.

Take a read-some of what he says..I have said.  What do you say

‘The Athletic’ with its perspective of Padres baseball at this hour:
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By Chad JenningsOct. 14, 2025 5:08 pm PDT
A.J. Preller always has a trick up his sleeve. As head of baseball operations, his aggressive brand of hocus pocus has defined the San Diego Padres for more than a decade.

Voila! Preller traded for Fernando Tatis Jr.

Poof! He signed Manny Machado.

Presto! He acquired Juan Soto.

Even this summer, with money tight and his farm system depleted, Preller pulled Mason Miller, Ramón Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn and Freddy Fermin out of his trade deadline hat.

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When one sleight of hand doesn’t work, Preller’s always ready to try another, and for his next trick, Preller’s looking for someone to put in a managerial box that might be sawed in half within a year or two. After Mike Shildt’s sudden retirement on Monday, Preller is in the market for a new Padres manager, and like any good magician, his sales pitch is full of razzle-dazzle, with a healthy dose of misdirection.

“I think it’s a really attractive job,” Preller said in a conference call on Tuesday.

He talked about the Padres’ potent bullpen, and their strong core of position players. He praised the ballpark, the fanbase, and the city. He noted that the Padres have been to the playoffs four times in the past six years, and that they’ve gotten there with three different managers.

“Which I think speaks to the strength of the roster and the organization,” Preller said.

Never mind that none of those three managers lasted more than two years on the job, and pay no attention to the age of those position players — or the length of their contracts — and keep looking at that mighty bullpen, because there isn’t much to see in the Padres’ rotation.

Oh, and don’t worry at all about the unsettled ownership situation — nothing to see there.

Eight Major League teams are looking for managers this offseason, and the Padres’ job might be the least predictable of the bunch. The Colorado Rockies and Minnesota Twins are obviously rebuilding. The Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves are turn-key opportunities to win quickly and perhaps sustainably.

But the Padres? All of Preller’s talking points are correct. Their bullpen is tremendous. Their position player core is in place. There is energy and opportunity, and Preller is wired to compete.

But even a quick glance behind the curtain should raise serious questions about the viability of this particular magic act, and who’s going to be left holding the cards if and when the whole thing falls apart.

The Padres have stars like Fernando Tatis Jr., left, and Manny Machado, but they are also hamstrung by giant contracts.Mark Brown / Getty Images
It’s a roster with talent …
The competitive window is still open. The Padres won at least 89 games in three of the past four seasons, and there’s nothing to indicate they’re planning a shift into rebuilding mode.

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Tatis Jr. is firmly in his prime and playing like it. Five years into a 14-year contract, Tatis turns 27 in January and just had a 6.1 fWAR season. Jackson Merrill turns 23 in April, and next season is the start of a nine-year, team-friendly extension. Those two are fixtures, young and dependable.

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Machado is 33 but still an All-Star. Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth will be back next season. Fermin and Laureano can also stick around. The lineup could use some thump, but the offense is certainly not starting from scratch.

… that is expensive, unmovable, and long-in-the-tooth
Machado turns 34 in July, and his 11-year, $350-million contract is backloaded so that he’ll make $35 million a year from 2027 to 2033 (he’ll turn 35 in the middle of that 2027 season). On top of the $35 million in salary, he will get $5 million in signing bonus payments each year from 2027-33. He remains a well above-average hitter, but he hasn’t had an OPS in the .800s since 2022.

Bogaerts, who turned 33 in October, has been putting up even worse offensive numbers lately, and his past two seasons have resulted in his lowest fWAR since he was a 21-year-old rookie. Bogaerts is signed through his 41st birthday.

Add the five years remaining on 31-year-old Cronenworth’s deal, and the Padres already have more than $128 million — basically, the entire Rockies payroll — on the books for 2030, with most of that going to players who will be in their late 30s by the time their deals expire. Preller said he wants a manager who will be on the job for 10 years, but that’s going to be one helluva decade when all of those long-term deals start to sour.

The bullpen is nasty …
Every manager loves a good bullpen, and the Padres have a great one.

Even if All-Star closer Robert Suarez opts out, the Padres have Miller, who is more than capable of filling the void. Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada also should be back, and David Morgan and Bradgley Rodriguez showed promise as rookies.

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Bullpens are always fraught, but the Padres’ pen is about as sustainable and reliable as a bullpen could be. There’s some chance the Padres could tap into that depth to audition a reliever as a starter, or make a deal to address other needs, but if a strong bullpen is a luxury, the Padres bullpen is a five-star resort.

… but the rotation is non-existent
Getting to that bullpen requires going through a rotation that basically doesn’t exist. The Padres had a middle-of-the-road rotation during the regular season, but it had grown thin by October and will practically vanish this offseason.

Dylan Cease is heading for free agency, as is Nestor Cortes, and Michael King almost certainly will decline his end of a mutual option. Up-and-coming starters Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek were traded at the deadline, offseason addition Kyle Hart fell flat, and mid-season acquisition JP Sears wound up in Triple A.

What’s left is 32-year-old Nick Pivetta, who’s coming off a career year, but has an unusual contract that jumps from $1 million salary in 2025 to $19 million in 2026.
Yu Darvish is 39 years old and coming off a career-worst 5.38 ERA, but he’s signed for three more seasons with little certainty that he’ll play all of them.

Joe Musgrove is signed for another two seasons, but he turns 33 in December and missed all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Randy Vásquez is not yet arbitration-eligible and made 26 starts this season, but he’s more of a back-end arm, and the Padres never used him in the playoffs.

The club has both an aggressive front office and a history of spending …
Preller’s had to fix stuff like this before, and he’s done it in a variety of ways. He’s best known for his trades, but he’s also spent money, and the farm system has had some development success (including a handful of those good relievers).

During Tuesday’s conference call, Preller reiterated that commitment to building a winner, though he was predictably — and perhaps understandably — vague about what exactly he planned to do in pursuit of a third-straight playoff berth.

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Roster Resource and Cots Contracts estimate a current $230 million competitive balance payroll for the Padres in 2026. They were closer to $270 million in 2025 and above $290 million in 2023, so there could be room to spend. For prospective managers looking to win right away, there are far worse situations.

… and no guarantee either of those things last
It’s fair to wonder just how quickly that competitive window might slam shut.

Preller is in the last year of his contract. He’s had the job since 2014 but could move on without some sort of extension. The farm system he has to work with is among the worst in baseball, limiting Preller’s trade chips and minimizing the potential for impact call-ups. Even the ownership situation is complicated, as former owner Peter Seidler’s widow has sued two of his brothers for control of the team.

Given the aging core, the contractual commitments well beyond a player’s prime, and a potentially lame-duck head of baseball operations, the Padres’ job is fraught with complications, and even winning hasn’t been enough to guarantee longevity in the job. Since 2020, Shildt, Bob Melvin and Jayce Tingler got the Padres to the playoffs as manager, but each lasted only two years in the seat.

So, what’s Preller looking for in his next manager? He mentioned all the predictable attributes. Baseball knowledge. Communication skills. Decision making ability.

“I think somebody that embraces expectations,” Preller said. “That’s a real thing in this market.”

For the next Padres manager, there might be nothing as important as figuring out what’s real, and what’s an illusion.

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“PADRES–ANOTHER LOSS”

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The season is over, but the losses continue to pile up on the Padres.

The latest loss, the exit of Manager Mike Shildt, is a pretty big blow.
It came as a surprise to the front office and ownership.
They learned just last Saturday after Shildt asked for 6-days off to ‘recharge’ his battery.
He realized he did not want to go on..he was sick alot-stressed out-did not sleep well
He came to conclusion he could not lead them to another 90-win season
He told them he wants to sit in his beach chair in North Carolina
He knows what the stress did to LaRussa-Francona-Washington-Leyland

General Manager AJ Preller answered alot of questions in his end of season press conference.  What he said was equal to the sincere things Shildt said in his farewell letter on Monday.

The end word to summarize what happened, Shildt ‘burned out’ on the job-not willing to go forward , despite a 4M-payday still left on his contract, and the reality he still has a pennant contending roster.  It was much deeper than that.

AJ Preller’s key quotes from his Press Conference”
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Shildt told me of his health issues just last Saturday
He was unwilling to consider moving into another role
He never discussed retirement till we talked during the Cubs playoff series
There was no internal conflict
It was a surprise to me-not a shock
I respect the blood-sweat-tears he put in
He is a 24-7 Baseball man
On Saturday he told me I don’t see myself continuing
He felt stress with every loss
He cared a ton
162-games in 180-days and the off season is no longer the off season

This is an attractive baseball job..roster..ballpark..the fans
Internal candidates know the culture of the organization
I want a manager with baseball knowledge and knowledge of communication
I have alot of confidence in the roster we have built
We have built continuity in the front office
I want a manager for 10-years
We had a very good year-getting to the playoffs is not easy
We have raised the bar to get to the big stage

Yu Darvish was never 100%-we have talked about the future-will talk again
Joe Musgrove will be at the front of the rotation
Next up will be meetings with Cease-King
Mason Miller to the rotation-he knows what we did with Pomeranz-King-Lugo
Campusano will have a role here
Will talk to Machado about managing a 162-game schedule
Ethan Salas is at 92%-we want him at 99%-before we put him on field-in spring
No negotiations on my extension-talks will go forward
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“PADRES–LEAVING ON HIS OWN TERMS”
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The adjectives and adverbs pretty much defined the decision he made.
It was stunning, surprising, maybe even shocking.
But if you knew his background, his lifestyle, you understood the pressure.

Mike Shildt walked away from one of the best jobs in baseball.
He walked away from 2M-and the final two years of his contract.
He is leaving the game on his own terms, exiting, not being told to leave.

The Padres manager is going home to North Carolina, leaving after 93-and-90 win seasons.  Stepping away to take care of his health.  Exiting despite amazing accomplishments in the dugout, the clubhouse, in the community.

But if you paid attention to some of the phrases, it adds up to what I believe is true.

‘Baseball Burnout’.  A baseball lifer, he would spent 12-to-14 hours at Petco Park.  Without a family here, the game, the wins, the losses, the players, the problems accompanied him home every night.

He used the word ‘severe’ to discuss the toll of a grind of season took on him.

He used phrases about ‘mentally-physically-emotionally’ showing the drain on him, as his professional life spilled into his personal life.

When he said ‘I gave every fiber of my body’ it hit home, that there was no other facet to his life, even away from the ballpark, and that’s all he knew how to do.  Manage, win-lose, think about it, and return to do it the next day.

‘Take care of myself’ is a prime example of a mental state when you wake up one morning realizing the profession has overtaken your personal life.  The wins don’t become a salve to the issues, because they are replaced by fears of what you have to do next to avoid the next failure on the field.  And in baseball, that always happens in a 162-game schedule.  You enjoy the wins for 15-minutes and then you start worrying about what is next.

Shildt won all those games in St-Louis but was let go because he could not change his style.  He went (183-141) in two years here, but there were always problems, pitching injuries, player slumps, and the constant din of dealing with an inquiring media.

He was old school baseball, surrounded by the new breed of analytics guys.  There was his history of playing small-ball, and using every ounce of the playbook to manufacture runs and wins.  But he was Baseball IQ-smart to understand matchups, lineups and how to use the bullpen.

But as good as Shildt was linking old to new, he could not survive the pitching injuries to Yu Darvish-Michael King-Joe Musgrove.  He could not solve the extended slumps of Manny Machado or Fernando Tatis.  It was probably tough to relate some of the attitudes that existed to this day in that clubhouse.

Some will say the imposition of AJ Preller’s will on doing things, might have worn him out.  But the working relationship upstairs to the dugout seemed much better that it was under the deteriorating Bob Melvin era.

The Padres face a challenging off season.  Fix the pitching staff.  Move money around to lure key short term rentals here.  Find a power bat at an affordable price.  Look to the Pacific Rim to find more free agents who can be what Hy Seong Kim, Robert Suarez and others became in San Diego.

And now Preller must find the right guy to work with, different than the failed hirings of Andy Green-Jayce Tingler and Melvin.

As for what is ahead for Shildt.  He dropped hints of wanting to return to some form of baseball after he takes his vacation from the game.  Might the Padres bring him back as a consultant, or a teaching emeritus professorship in their minor league system?

It’s a unique highway the ex-Padres manager has chosen to take.

I take him at his word.  He burned out on baseball, but might be willing to reinvent himself after time away from the game.

Hate to see him leave, but it is apparent he wants to step out before he is carried out.

Say thanks for a job well done.  It’s a big loss for the Padres.

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“CHARGERS–UGLY WIN–STILL A WIN”
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The Chargers won a game they should have lost.
They won a game against a really despondent Miami Dolphins team.
The standings now show a (4-2) record.
The NFL does not give out style points.
But the Bolts are lucky; they play anybody else on Sunday, then get beat.

Justin Herbert’s magic, tenacity, escapability and raw talent got them the game winning TD with 3-seconds left.  Sure to be sacked, again, he scrambled in a fire drill move, heaved a pass that wound up being a 42-yard completion to Ladd McConkey, that got the Chargers into Cam Dicker’s 5th field goal of the day, and the win.

All this after Miami’s struggling QB-Tua Tagovailoa somehow led the shorthanded Dolphins on a late TD drive to get them the lead with (:46) left, only to see Herbert do his Houdini thing again to bail his troubled team out.

It was really a pitiful game.

The makeshift Chargers offensive line, looking like a patchwork quilt of players, struggled to protect Herbert.  He took a sack, took 8-more hits and 6-pressures.  Add in the bucket full of procedure and holding calls.  So you know why guys like Bobby Hart, David Sharpe and others were on the unemployment line till the Chargers called.

There was the usual assortment of Charger personal foul penalties again that could have been fatal along the way.  DT-Teair Tart, building quite a reputation as a cheapshot artist, nearly cost his team the game with a head shot on the Miami QB on the last Miami drive in the final minutes.

Bright spots, yes, young RB-Kimani Vidal busting big runs of 19-27-38 yards that led to a career afternoon of (124Y).  McConkey, who has been MIA the past couple of weeks, caught (7R-100Y) and rookie TE-Orande Gadsden hauled in 7-more passes-despite an early fumble.

Pass rusher Odafe Oweh, who came in a trade from the Ravens, had a sack, a pressure and a deflected pass in limited play.

The Chargers defense picked off 3-passes, and Tagovailoa looked intimidated, with no rhythm to the offense, and little accuaracy throwing down the field.  Of course there is no Tyreek Hill in Miami now, and Jaylen Waddle cannot do it by himself.

Coach Mike McDaniel’s play calls were  bizarre, and his failure to get the ball into the hands of TE-Darren Waller was really strange.  Nothing looks right in Miami.  And the bad look, all the empty turquoise seats in Miami Gardens.

So the Bolts come home, knowing they were lucky to survive Sunday. Next weekend the surprise Indianapolis Colts bring their new look offense into LA.

And the Chargers have to keep on winning because Denver has a full head of steam, while the Chargers are not now what they were earlier, when they went (3-0).

At the end of the day, did you win?  Yes they did.  But if they don’t get this offensive line healthy, they are not going to keep winning.  Because there are not very many more Miami type teams on the schedule.

An ugly win, is a win none-the-less.
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“NBA-LA-ISSUES–ALREADY”
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Time out from the Dodgers-Phillies wild playoff series….Rams pursuit of first place… the Chargers roster issues…USC’s hot streak..and UCLA’s adventures.

Time in for NBA teams in camp with the season a week away.

Stop the presses.  This is a hard to believe story.

LeBron James won’t play for the Lakers opening night.  In fact he won’t play for a month.

From what was a minor nerve issue in his glute has escalated to a full blown case of sciatica, that will knock him out for 4-weeks.

As if there are not enough questions about new pieces trying to fit in together, now the Lakers become Luka Doncic, a new center, and new guys off the bench trying to win right from the get go.  Without King James.

Deandre Ayton has played poorly in preseason, this coming after he played himself off the roster of the Portland Trailblazers.  He seems a shell of the player who broke in with the Suns years ago and did so well.

Marcus Smart is coming off surgery and may need conditioning time.

Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura will be the other starters, but now there are question marks all around Doncic.

LeBron missed the end of last season with a foot injury after having ankle injuries early.  Now he shows up hurt, has never practiced and is now out into likely December, if this hip-back-leg issue does not linger.

Not what the Lakers need as James enters his 23rd season of a never to be matched career.  But that’s lots of minutes-games-banging-grinding.

You hope this is a fluke injury, not a wear and tear complication of the 200,000 miles on his body.

The last hurrah for LeBron will be delayed.  You hope he is not becoming sidetracked by a body breaking down.

An LA-issue already.  No one saw this coming.  No one wants thisl.

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