Padres – What to do, Who to Believe

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You are what your record says you are. So said Hall of Fame NFL Coach Bill Parcells, and it fits the San Diego Padres these days.

We are two weeks out from the baseball trading deadline, and depending on whom you talk to, they are either ‘buyers-or-sellers’ when the GMs make phone calls.

Yes, they believe they are still in the wild card pennant race, and yes, there are still 75-games or so left to play. But no, this will not be an easy trick to make their way into the ‘play-in’ wildcard game.

Yes, they have walk free agents in outfielder Justin Upton and pitcher Ian Kennedy and there have been no contract talks to retain them that we know of.

Upton has hit well at Petco, and might be looking at a payday beyond 16M per season. Kennedy has struggled badly, but it is doubtful he would sign now, for that is not the practice of agent Scott Boras. He puts pitchers on the open market and see where the bidding goes.

Rumor says Upton could be moved, maybe to the Mets for young pitching or a young outfielder, like Michael Conforto..

Kennedy is not as marketable right now because of that (4-9) record and that agent, but he could be a value mid-rotation rental guy, possibly to the Angels or Dodgers for a prospect..

it is hard to believe the rumors, but everyone has sources, and Buster Olney at ESPN is of the opinion the Padres are shopping the 75M contract of James Shields to the Cubs. But Chicago is loaded, led by shortstops Starlin Castro and Javy Baez.

And another GM has indicated the Yankees, with a pitching staff of arm issues, are interested in Craig Kimbrel with young 2nd baseman Rob Refsnyder as part of a deal coming this way..

Reliever Joaquin Benoit has value as a short term rental also.

But if GM-AJ Preller is to move these players, his credibility takes a double hit. He spent alot of currency, 11-young minor league prospects to build this roster. He’d be admitting he made a mistake. It would then lead to questions as to whether he knows what he is doing.

You don’t trade rosters and prospects like they are baseball cards.

It also sends a really bad message to the fans and the paying public, that a major rebuild is underway, and remember this, rebuilding without much of a farm system, which you dealt away last offseason..

Who replaces Upton in the batting order? Who is your closer if Kimbrel moves? Do you think there is another Shields ready for the rotation? I don’t see answers anywhere.

I’d stay the course, keep this group, see if you can vault a number of teams, and be a playoff team. And then go back into the market place next year, with Upton and Kennedy money and replace them, if as expected they leave.

There are six teams infront of the Padres right now in the wildcard race. They could still be a contender. Trading key guys now means you have no hope, not this year, and maybe not for a couple of more years.

You are what your record says you are. Don’t make it worse, by giving up on the team you put on the field, just four months ago.

1-Man’s Opinion-Friday “Padres Mid Year Report Card”

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They opened the year with such excitement and enthusiasm, and why not, after the off season spending spree. The first half of this Padres baseball season has been a big disappointment. The second half of the campaign starts this evening. Today, a mid-season grade on the team, its players, and leaders.

GM-AJ Preller…He started like a dynamo at the Winter Meetings, all those deals, created all that off season buzz. Half the deals haven’t worked out. A number of players dealt away are having better years that those he acquired. And a group of the blue chip prospects he dealt away are having strong seasons somewhere else. Compounding all this, the team failed to land any of the marquee Cubans other teams signed. In addition, Preller has taken on contracts now he cannot move. So far-expectation replaced by disappointment. Grade (C)

Manager Bud Black…He did more with less over the tenured run as manager. I never felt he felt comfortable with a new front office in place. His managerial moves early in the season, lineups, use of the bullpen, seemed strange and out of sync. Then his starting staff faltered, and key guys did not hit. Feel bad he was fired. Grade (C).

Interim Manager Pat Murphy….He hasn’t had enough time to really learn much about his team…Banged up guys in the lineup have hurt, and there seems to be no continuity to the batting order. Some of the starting pitching is better, but his record is no better than the guy he replaced. Grade (C).

Pitching-Starters…Staffs are never the same one year to the next, and all the innings piled up by the returning starters seem to have taken a toll. Despite the flashy start of James Shields, he is not winning now. Ian Kennedy, aside from a few quality starts, has regressed back to his home-run prone days in Arizona. Tyson Ross seems to have found his comfort zone after a terrible start. Andrew Cashner has a series of horrible starts, and now a series of great outings with no run support. Odri Despaigne pitches miserable ball on the road, and scouting reports have figured him out. Brandon Morrow had a clean start and since then has not gotten healthy. The ERA is at 4:05, and this from a staff that was second in the National League last year. Grade (D).

Pitching-Relievers…Craig Kimbrel is as advertised, nasty on the mound. Brandon Mauer has been the biggest surprise. The rest of the bullpen has been spotty, guys hurt, guys going back and forth from El Paso. As of today, the relievers ERA is (3.95)…remember last year when it was in the (1.20) range at midseason. Grade (B)

Hitting…Streaky at best, disappointing mostly. Justin Upton hits real HRs at Petco Park, but has had two major months of slumps. Matt Kemp is not getting power into his swing and is strikeout prone. Will Venable has his spurts, Melvin Upton has a glove. Yonder Alonso has had a very good first half of the season, coming off the hand surgeries. Jedd Gyorko has yet to hit back, average or home run-wise, to what he did as a rookie. The rest of the rotation guys look like platoon players at best. Derek Norris plays with heart, exhibits great leadership, hits with power, though he seems to wear down. Wil Myers is a great young talent and was everything advertised before the wrist surgeries. Corey Spangenberg, like Venable in a spurt guy. Will Middlebrooks, Yanger Solarte have their moments, but not very often. Alexi Amirista is hitting just around the Mendoza line, not good, compared to what he did before. Austin Hedges is sitting and learning, but you wonder if he would have been better off playing the entire year in the PCL. for all the money shelled out, the lineup is a mess. Grade (D)

Defense…A horrid start early, it has gotten better. Kemp plays really hard. Upton really hustles. Melvin Upton chases down lots in the outfield, but that is way too much money for a bat with holes in it. Myers was fine. Alonso might be a Gold Glove candidate. Solarte does make plays at times. Norris throws out lots of runners. It’s gotten better, but it is not great. Grade (C)

Player Grades
James Shields…Dominant early-not so much since-home runs and walks (C).
Tyson Ross..Poor start-now dialed in-but mechanics get away (B).
Ian Kennedy..Hamstring-home run balls-walks in a free agent year-just not the same pitcher (D)
Odri Despaigner..Horrid on the road-no longer ambushing people with his delivery-stuff (D)
Andrew Cashner…Has had bad outings, but more good ones without run support, more complete pitcher than ever (C).
Brandon Morrow..Competes-has diabetes-now ailing shoulder (B)
Craig Kimbrel….Bring the heat-meat and he does (A).
Joaquin Benoit..Not quite as dominant as a year ago (B)
Brandon Mauer..what a nice acquisition-has found his role and niche (A)
Dale Thayer…Ailing a bit because of over-use..not same pitcher as a year ago (C)
Frank Garces..Looks a bit overwhelmed at times (C)
Kevin Quackenbush…Growing as a setup guy-numbers a bit off (B)
Shawn Kelly…Bad outings early then injury but competes (B)

Yonder Alonso..Now healthy-everything they hoped he could be when he came from Reds (A)
Jedd Gyorko..Starting to hit after 20-days in El Paso-jury still really out on him now (C)
Alexi Amirista…Just not same player with bat in hand-disappointing (D)
Yanger Solarte..Can play lots of places-thought he filled in nicely at first-streak hitter (B)
Will Middlebrooks..Yes to rally back to player he was as Red Sox rookie (C)
Wil Myers..Like everything about him-hoping for health (A)
Matt Kemp..Hustles but not hitting yet-believe he has leg-ankle-foot issues (C)
Justin Upton..Can hit and is aggressive in outfielder-hope they keep him (B)
Will Venable..All out every night when he plays games (B)
Derek Norris…Scrap iron-special leader-should be captain-wants to play everyday (A)
Austin Hedges..So good on defense-so young in batters box-eager to learn and play (B)
Clint Barmes…Pros pro-maybe should play more-quiet leader (B)
Corey Spangenberg..Bright young talent-not a star-like his speed and grit-spit (B)
Melvin Upton..Can go get it-cannot hit-not deserve this contract team is stuck with (C)

1-Man’s Opinion Column “British Open without the Best”

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This surely will be a strange four days of golf at the birthplace, the “Old Course”, at St. Andrew’s in Scotland, home of the British Open.

It will be strange because they are talking terrible weather, rains, 60mph winds, and brutal course conditions over the next 48-72-hours.

Strange too, for some of the biggest names likely won’t be anywhere near the top of the leaderboard, and the biggest name, is not even playing.

Fascinating to watch the continued growth of the Texas superstar Jordan Spieth, who has already won at Augusta-the Masters, and then in the US-Open. Interesting to watch Dustin Johnson, who has been so close to super stardom, but has not been able to close the deal and win the biggies.

But it has been weeks, months, and years of controversies surrounding the other big names we are so used to see heading up the 18th green on the final day in the Open.

Tiger Woods has not won a Grand Slam event since 2008. Injuries, ill conceived coaching changes, and his unchartered life have plunged him into the personal and profession abyss of his life. Woods teed off this morning ranked 241st in the world ratings. His calendar this year has included rounds of 80 and 85, missed cuts, withdrawls, and finishes in 65th and 68th place.

Phil Mickelson’s career has tailed off, maybe some age, maybe some injury. The smile is still there, the shot making has not. Grand Slams are a bit of a distant memory for him. However this betting scandal issue is still out there, and though he refuses to talk about it, one must imagine, allowing 2.7M of his personal funds to wind up in the accounts of a convicted gambler, is a bad thing for image.

There will be no Rory McIlroy sighting either, the aftermath of a young golfer doing something stupid, tearing ankle ligaments, playing in a pickup game of soccer in Ireland. Luckily for him it was not an Achillies tendon tear.

So they have teed off, with a wide open tourney, on wide open links spaces ahead of us Anyone can win this thing, now that the field no longer contains the talents of the hunters, Woods-Mickelson-McIlroy.

If the weather doesn’t get him, if the pressure doesn’t get him, Spieth has a chance go get his third major this year.

So much tradition, so tough a course, so much bad weather. This will be a wild four days ahead of us, played at golf’s birthplace.

1-Man’s Opinion Column-Wednesday “Baseballs new Boss”

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Baseball has a new boss, and it has nothing to do with the late Yankees legend George Steinbrenner, and not much to do with the ex-Commissioner Bud Selig.

 
The new leader is longtime MLB exec Rob Manfred, by way of Rome, New York, and is his plate ever full.

 
The All Star Game voting was one story, but it will not change, so the controversies will not go away.

 
The Pete Rose saga, washed up on the shores of the Ohio River again last night, with the ex-kReds icon awaiting an invitation to talk about his pat, while Manfred saying there was no urgency, and he was not ready to hear whatever Rose wanted to say, yet.

 
Manfred sure has a checklist of things to deal with. His proposed idea of the reduction of the schedule from 162-games to 154, to give players more days off, and open up the prospect for expanded playoffs, is still in the idea stage.

 
Whatever chatter that is taking place about the DH-and the National League, must be going on behind closed doors. Manfred likes uniformity, but not many other people are in favor of watching the DH in the NL.

 
There will be no dicussion of use of instant replays for balls and strikes, so I guess it remains an imperfect subjective science of the guys behind home plate.

 
The new leader is pleased with the pace of the game rules, that have pushed games from 3:05 to 2:58 this season, though there seems to be no policing of the ‘keep your foot in the batters box rule’.

 
The 1-game wild card play-in game was exciting next year, and the new leader does not see any change in that structured immediately. No best of 3-play-in…best of 5-second round..then best of seven after that.

 
There is talk, realistitc or not, about expansion, with Montreal at the forefront, followed by Charlotte, Las Vegas and even the Meadowlands-New Jeresey. But all that is tied to new stadiums which are needed in all those cities.

 
But for the first time in a long time, this All Star break, and its storylines were all about baseball issues. Not bad Bud Selig decisions, not PEDs, not probes or A-Rod lawsuits, not Biogenesis, or Union appeals about discipline of players.

 
Rob Manfred is dealing with lots of interesting issues, all of them about the grand old game. It’s about the game of baseball, not the business of baseball or the legal side of baseball.

 

Refreshing isn’t it?.

1-Man’s Opinion Column-“Wednesday” “Baseball’s new Boss”

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Baseball has a new boss, and it has nothing to do with the late Yankees legend George Steinbrenner, and not much to do with the ex-Commissioner Bud Selig.
The new leader is longtime MLB exec Rob Manfred, by way of Rome, New York, and is his plate ever full.
The All Star Game voting was one story, but it will not change, so the controversies will not go away.
The Pete Rose saga, washed up on the shores of the Ohio River again last night, with the ex-kReds icon awaiting an invitation to talk about his pat, while Manfred saying there was no urgency, and he was not ready to hear whatever Rose wanted to say, yet.
Manfred sure has a checklist of things to deal with. His proposed idea of the reduction of the schedule from 162-games to 154, to give players more days off, and open up the prospect for expanded playoffs, is still in the idea stage.
Whatever chatter that is taking place about the DH-and the National League, must be going on behind closed doors. Manfred likes uniformity, but not many other people are in favor of watching the DH in the NL.
There will be no dicussion of use of instant replays for balls and strikes, so I guess it remains an imperfect subjective science of the guys behind home plate.
The new leader is pleased with the pace of the game rules, that have pushed games from 3:05 to 2:58 this season, though there seems to be no policing of the ‘keep your foot in the batters box rule’.
The 1-game wild card play-in game was exciting next year, and the new leader does not see any change in that structured immediately. No best of 3-play-in…best of 5-second round..then best of seven after that.
There is talk, realistitc or not, about expansion, with Montreal at the forefront, followed by Charlotte, Las Vegas and even the Meadowlands-New Jeresey. But all that is tied to new stadiums which are needed in all those cities.
But for the first time in a long time, this All Star break, and its storylines were all about baseball issues. Not bad Bud Selig decisions, not PEDs, not probes or A-Rod lawsuits, not Biogenesis, or Union appeals about discipline of players.
Rob Manfred is dealing with lots of interesting issues, all of them about the grand old game. Refreshing isn’t it?.
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